Will Anthropic be the Netscape or Yahoo of our time ?

This is ridiculous neither Netscape nor Yahoo made much money (source: I worked at Netscape). Anthropic is one of the largest fastest growing businesses of all time.

It stops Singapore washing.

Africans are more indebted to Western multilateral organizations and private Western bondholders than to the Chinese. The idea that Africans are being finessed by the Chinese is racist and stems from a "we know what's good for you" imperialistic lens.

Interesting. I'm just relaying what I read in quality newspapers over here. And it's not just Africa. Anyway, you may be right. Do you have numbers?

Do you have moat if your advanced model can be distilled in a month or two ?

Moonshot (Kimi) has raised $3.77B and been around for >3 years, Thinking Machines raising $2B and releasing a decent open weights model in 16 months is actually quite comparable.

I think your comments might be overly negative. Would you expect the first model from an organization to top the chart? It's a process, I think they did pretty good. They have enough resources to continue improving on it

> ...while KIMI and DeepSeek will release Fable-class models this week.

What new model is DeepSeek releasing? Their current V4 Pro at Max reasoning is consistently worse than GLM 5.2 at Max reasoning, though the latter is close to Opus 4.8 at Extra/Max reasoning, albeit a little bit worse in my experience (though if they gave comparable amounts of tokens to Anthropic 5x Max subscription I could see myself moving over, currently they give you less though even with their ZCode discount).

In practical agentic development, none of those seem to be that close to Fable to me. Spent 181 million tokens with GLM 5.2 with ZCode in the past month, 142 million with DeepSeek V4 Pro with ZCode and OpenCode and about 3.45 billion across all Anthropic models with Claude Code, though understandably with my workload between 95-99% of them are cached (very docs/plan/tooling/read heavy work to limit slop, albeit with sub-agents and workflows).

DeepSeekV4 was a preview model, read the papers. It's not the final model. They released it to demonstrate architectural capabilities. They are still training and the model release is planned within the next month.

If they somehow make it approach Fable in capability, I’ll be quite surprised!

I haven't used Fable, but if the hype is to be believed then it's a jump in model capability. If so then I don't expect the next DeepSeekV4 version to match it. However, if the next DSV4 version get's the kind of jump 3.1 got over 3.0 or 4 got over 3.2, I'll be very happy with it. Progress is progress. We "can" run DSV4 locally, Fable is closed.

Not even GPT 5.6 approaches it, why would DeepSeek with less investment?

Well Chinnese companies are way more efficient, Deepseek did manage to get quite far with a relatively tiny number of staff and limited funding. Then you have companies like Meta which suck pretty much at everything they (excluding their core business) regardless of how much money they throw at it.

I prefer 5.6 Sol to Fable personally and I've used both extensively.

Anyone would think these investors are making a bet they can improve using that cash.

Kuweires airbase in Syria never fell to isis and held for over two years.

You forget some people have dementia or that there were more sophisticated versions. Many people saw it as a means to make a bit of money on the side.

Republicans trust Americans with guns and not an LLM. That should tell you something.

It tells me that the people who buy Republican politicians make money from selling Americans guns, and somebody with influence thinks they can make money by restricting LLM release.

What happens when open source models achieve Mythos level capabilities in six months' time?

I dont seem to understand why no one is talking about this obvious fact? I mean suddenyl everyone is banning .. ok .. well how many months behind are the open source models?

If you assume that open models catch up in 6-12-36 months, then you either assume exponential growth destroying the global economy and probably the world in a few years, or you assume it plateaus and commoditises.

Even if your country prevents access to compute to protect the trillion dollar companies, it’s not going to apply for every country, and as models get better it becomes easier to compete. There’s no way an AI non proliferation treaty will be passed or even enforceable.

I think it's probably more like a year or a year and a half. I don't want to say two years, but it's what I'm actually thinking.

GLM 5.2 is already between 4.6 Opus 4.7 Opus level based on Artificial Analysis aggregation. 4.6 Opus is about 4 months old at this point, so seems like open source is maybe 4-6 months behind. It could still take a year but seems closer to 6 months.

Artificial Analysis is just as benchmark-maxxed as they come. Aggregating tons of benchmark-maxxing means you're still benchmark-maxxed.

There's simply no replacement for training on more, better tokens, with more parameters. Mythos/Fable was estimated to be closer to 10T parameters than the 800B like GLM 5.2 is.

We'll see Mythos 2.0 patching all the Mythos 1.0 vulnerabilities before we see an open-source Mythos 1.0.

What matters isn't the power of the tool, but whether defenders have had time to secure against. Today's cyberweapon is tomorrow's laughably obsolete.

Stuxnet used to be a national security threat, now I'm not sure it would be useful for anything.

They were not saying f Open Spurce Mythos 1.0. They were talking about performance / capability parity in other open source models.

Yeah, and by the time that happens, we will have seen Mythos 2.0 released

in America, maybe, but all of our adversaries will still have access to them, and continue working on them.

Never stop cheering for open source . If you were a human 3000 years ago ,you wouldn't want fire to be controlled by two chiefs.

The analogy doesn’t work because when fire was invented the infrastructure to spread its knowledge everywhere wasn’t built yet.

Also it was always going to be rediscovered on its own: the possibility of igniting a fire from sparks is learnable by watching lightning strike a tree. And once someone sees that - or sees someone else make fire - they can copy it, no language needed.

Actually i bet there were people back then who were worried about the wrong people getting access to fire for various reasons

I don't know, maybe everyone shouldn't have a magic lamp that they can use to wish for whatever they want?

Seems like it depends on what you can wish for?